Obsidian Econometrics 2026 Q1 US Real GDP Forecast In Line with BEA's Estimates; 2026 Q2 Forecast Snapshot

2026 Q1 Real GDP Update. ​The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its second estimate of US Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026. The BEA's 2026 Q1 second estimate of 1.6 percent was lowered from its initial estimate of 2.0 percent. Drivers of the lower estimate include downward revisions for consumption and business investment. An upward revision of core prices also contributed to BEA’s lower real GDP estimate.

2026 Q2 Real GDP Forecast Snapshot. Obsidian Econometrics US 2026 Q1 Real GDP forecast, last revised in April 2026, is 1.8 percent, which currently falls between the BEA's first and second estimate for 2026 Q1, and predicts slower growth of 1.43 percent for 2026 Q2. The chart to the left also includes a 2026 Q1 and Q2 forecast for the state of Washington, and King County, which includes the city of Seattle. Also included is a real economic growth output forecast for the Non-Hispanic Black population within King County, which contributes an estimated 3.5 percent to overall County economic growth levels. Our next forecast revision is scheduled for the summer of 2026.​

Our applied econometric methods  develop and validate traditional forecasts that can also incorporate distinct economic profiles at the local, state, or national level. Contact us to learn more about Obsidian Econometrics short- and long-term forecasting capabilities.