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OE Insights

Utilizing Categorical Outcomes Modeling To Determine The Likelihood of Aging Alone

6/3/2026

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According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, a growing number of adults aged 50 and older are living alone. This is a trend that has various policy implications at the local, state, and federal level. To determine if this trend is held at the state and local level, I developed a program to compile data for the state of North Carolina and for Mecklenburg County, NC, which includes the City of Charlotte. Categorical outcome models were then developed to determine the likelihood of a person aged 50 or older living alone in North Carolina overall and in Mecklenburg County, by sex and martial status, which are summarized in the four charts to the right.
​A visual examination of the charts illustrates how only the likelihood of living alone differs by sex, marital status, as well as by state and locality. To receive a detailed summary of the models’ results in the near future, which will provide more content to the summary charts, you can connect with Obsidian Econometrics on LinkedIn. 
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Obsidian Econometrics 2026 Q1 US Real GDP Forecast In Line with BEA's Estimates; 2026 Q2 Forecast Snapshot

5/28/2026

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2026 Q1 Real GDP Update. ​The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its second estimate of US Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026. The BEA's 2026 Q1 second estimate of 1.6 percent was lowered from its initial estimate of 2.0 percent. Drivers of the lower estimate include downward revisions for consumption and business investment. An upward revision of core prices also contributed to BEA’s lower real GDP estimate.
2026 Q2 Real GDP Forecast Snapshot. Obsidian Econometrics US 2026 Q1 Real GDP forecast, last revised in April 2026, is 1.8 percent, which currently falls between the BEA's first and second estimate for 2026 Q1, and predicts slower growth of 1.43 percent for 2026 Q2. The chart to the left also includes a 2026 Q1 and Q2 forecast for the state of Washington, and King County, which includes the city of Seattle. Also included is a real economic growth output forecast for the Non-Hispanic Black population within King County, which contributes an estimated 3.5 percent to overall County economic growth levels. Our next forecast revision is scheduled for the summer of 2026.​
Our applied econometric methods  develop and validate traditional forecasts that can also incorporate distinct economic profiles at the local, state, or national level. Contact us to learn more about Obsidian Econometrics short- and long-term forecasting capabilities.
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Iterative Food Sales Demand Forecast Model Development for Fresno County, California

5/4/2026

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This video describes the development and iterative improvement of a demand forecasting model for food and drink sales in Fresno County, aimed at helping local businesses better understand and optimize sales in relation to economic, weather, and pricing factors.
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Are Black women transitioning from the private sector workforce to self-employment? Preliminary quantitative results

4/29/2026

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​According to a news article’s assessment of recent government data, Black women are leaving the corporate labor force due to economic uncertainty and current federal policies and are increasingly choosing self-employment. I will provide a basic quantitative framework on how to determine if this is indeed the trend for black women over time, and if true, is the trend consistent spatially. I will also introduce a high-level assessment of its impact on local economies. These results can be used to develop strategies to enhance employment opportunities not only for black women, but for the entire working class regardless of race, ethnicity, and gender.

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Determining their potential risk of "zombie loans" to local economies

4/27/2026

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The Issue: Finance companies are taking advantage of a relaxed regulatory environment to pursue “zombie” mortgage loans, i.e., 2nd mortgages that were previously written off by the original lender. These companies pay pennies on the dollar for the rights to these loans and pursue the borrowers for the unpaid principle and accrued interest.

The Problem for zombie loans borrowers: An increased financial burden in an economy already impacted by slow economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty, and escalated inflation of  goods and services.


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    About  OE Insights

    Applied econometric  methods and strategies on economic and socioeconomic issues of interest

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